Does Evidence Matter?

July 2nd, 2020

Blog Posting # 592 @ 3 July 2020; Copyright 2020. Educatemhc.com

Perspective. ‘Land lease communities, previously manufactured home communities, and earlier, ‘mobile home parks’, comprise the real estate component of manufactured housing.’

EducateMHC is the online national advocate, asset class historian, data researcher, education resource, and communication media, for all land lease communities throughout North America!

To input this blog&/or affiliate with EducateMHC, telephone Official MHIndustry HOTLIUNE: (877) MFD-HSNG or 633-4764. Also email: gfa7156@aol.com, & visit www.educatemhc.com

Motto: ‘U Support US & WE Serve U!’ Goal: To promote HUD-Cade manufactured housing & land lease communities as U.S. # 1 source of affordable attainable housing! Attend MHM class!

INTRODUCTION: Everyone associated with national manufactured housing advocacy (i.e. MHI & MHARR for starters), has already weighed-in with their respective responses to HUD’s PD&R Winter/Spring 2020 edition of Evidence Matters. MHI, as usual, was supportive and complimentary. MHARR, not so; rather describing the subject matter as ‘An Unequaled Opportunity about to Go to Waste’, considering HUD writers’ light treatment of regulatory barriers to all forms of factory-built housing, especially HUD-Code manufactured housing; and, home-only financing (a.k.a. personal property or chattel capital). With that said, what follows here, are a few of my observations, pro & con, relative to industry statistics, trade terminology, ADUs, ROCs, and CrossMod™, all covered therein.

Feature article begins (pp.4&5) with a well-penned, but still shaky, summary of HUD-Code manufactured housing statistics:

• In 2018, 37 percent of all new HUD-Code homes “…were placed in manufactured home communities (parks, courts, or subdivisions).” I was OK with this until reading the word ‘subdivision’ in a sentence/stat that historically relates to land lease communities. More on the terminology issue shortly.

• Most new homes (65%) were placed on piers (also known as blocks). Really?

• ‘Most new homes were placed outside manufactured home communities.”

• ‘The average sale price of a new manufactured home in 2018 was $78,500 ($52,400 for a single-piece home and $99,500 for a two-piece home.” OUCH! We stopped making ‘singlewide & doublewide’ differentiations decades ago; today preferring ‘single section & multi section’ manufactured homes. But ‘single-piece & two-piece’ homes? NOT. This obviously penned by a novice to manufactured housing.

Trade Terminology. Here we go again; referring to past editions of Evidence Matters, where/when manufactured housing trade terminology was ‘all over the place’. It still is! As you already read in the first bullet point, no fewer than four terms are used to describe this unique, income-producing property type! Which raises the question, ‘Why include subdivision in this list?’ It’s a different application of property rights – those conveyed fee simple, not leaseholds.

So what are other terminology shortfalls? Manufactured housing communities (p.10), manufactured communities, p.10, park (owners) p.10), manufactured home community (pp.5, 9, 11), and – what should have been used all along, land lease communities (p.10). Perhaps the next manufactured housing-focused edition of Evidence Matters will get this matter right!

Accessory Dwelling Units or ADUs. Yes, like Tiny Houses (though not mentioned in this piece), a mini-housing fad of the decade (2010-2020). Don’t misunderstand, I’m a fan – just would not, could not, ‘live’ in one of them (e.g. ‘How does one ‘make up one’s bed’ when two corners are pushed against two walls?’). But they’re a good ‘bait & switch’ housing sales ploy – as ‘many land lease community owners, selling new HUD-Code homes on-site, have learned’! My beef? No definition as to what constitutes an ADU! Presumably, and ADU has to be livable, but what size? Methinks, less than 400 square feet in size to exempt it from the HUD-Code. Would have been helpful to learn those details here.

Emphasis on ROCs or resident-owned communities. According to this article, only 2.4 percent of all land lease communities in the U.S. today are ROCs. And for them, that’s Great Progress! However, only critical mention of the other 97.6 percent of land lease communities. Why the extreme imbalance? Is there a political or societal axe to grind here? Plus, the ROC info was supplemented with no fewer than three attractive color photographs of said properties. And then there’s this intriguing sentence:

“Residents of these communities are able to keep their site fees below market rates, make health and safety improvements, engage with other community members, and enjoy other economic benefits such as being able to sell their homes more quickly and for higher prices.” P.11

When I checked the origin of the footnote documenting these glowing advantages, I learned it was simply an email message, not a formal study of any kind. HUD should do better than that.

CrossMod™. Don’t think the writer really knows what’s going on here with this new design of HUD-Code manufactured home. It is NOT a ‘financing vehicle’, but a housing product with features designed to appeal to manufactured housing’s underserved markets: millennials, retirees. Furthermore, it is a HUD-Code home designed for placement on scattered building sites conveyed fee simple. And both GSEs (Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac) have customized ‘financing vehicles’ to support the CrossMod™ concept.

Here’s a puzzle for you. Two stats were prominent in this article. 37 percent of all new homes in 2018 went into land lease communities; and, “…as many as 53 percent of new manufactured homeowners owned the land and might have been eligible for a mortgage but instead financed their home with a personal property loan.” Frankly, I don’t believe the latter figure is accurate and here’s why:

2008 = 96,555 new HUD-Code homes shipped X .37% = 35,725 new MHs into LLCommunities

2008 = 96,555 new HUD-Code home shipped X .53% = 51,174 new homes maybe mis-financed

Now, subtracting 35,725 from 96,555 (2018 shipment volume total) leaves 60,830 new MHs going elsewhere (outside LLCommunities), in turn leaving but 9,656 new MHs ‘properly financed’ onto private building sites in and out of subdivisions. These figures don’t feel right to me. In manufactured housing we do a better job with home financing than those numbers suggest. Think the providers of the 53% stat need to dig deeper….

My ‘rub’ with the staff of Evidence Matters, and by extension, some staff at HUD, is this: When researching and preparing an article like this, that’s going to explore HUD-Code manufactured housing and land lease communities, make it a point – in the near and interim future – to reach out and actually converse with capable, experienced industry and realty asset class professionals, who actually ‘make their living’ in these two closely-related fields of housing endeavor! Think how much more accurate, interesting, and useful the end product will be!

If you’d like to comment on the content of this blog posting, do so via gfa7156@aol.com or write GFA c/o 170 Commerce Dr., Franklin, IN. 4613. Also visit www.educatemhc.com

GFA/cc

Land Lease Communities Extolled by NREI Magazine

June 25th, 2020

Blog # 591 @ 26 June 2020; Copyright 2020. Educatemhc.com

Perspective. ‘Land lease communities, previously manufactured home communities, and earlier, ’mobile home parks’, comprise the real estate component of manufactured housing.’

EducateMHC is the online national advocate, asset class historian, data researcher, education resource, and communication media, for all land lease communities throughout North America!

To input this blog &/or affiliate with EducateMHC, telephone the Official MHIndustry HOTLINE: (877) MFD-HSNG or 633-4764. Also email: gfa7156@aol.com, & visit educatemhc.com

Motto: ‘U Support US & WE Serve U!’ Goal: To promote HUD-Code manufactured housing & land lease communities as U.S. # 1 source of affordable attainable housing! Attend MHM class!

INTRODUCTION: Ah, this is a classic GOOD NEWS/BAD NEWS Communique!

I.

Land Lease Communities Extolled by NREI Magazine

“Manufactured housing properties are not only surviving the economic crisis created by the spread of the novel coronavirus. By some accounts, the sector is thriving compared to other types of real estate. There are some estimated 50,000 land lease communities of all sizes in the United States. Of these communities, a majority are properties comprised of 100 or fewer rental home site, and a minority are properties with 100 or more rental home sites. The larger properties, consisting of 100 or more sites, are already widely owned by the 500 known major players.” P.9 June 2020 issue of NREI magazine.

In my opinion, this superior operating performance (i.e. relative to physical and economic occupancy measures) during the coronavirus pandemic, has been one of the better kept positive secrets among land lease communities. Sure, there are, and continue to be, exceptions to this generality; but time and again, I hear reports of near 100 percent rental homesite fee collection! Reason? Can only guess at this point, but probably due to homeowner/site lessees being sincerely grateful to be living a lifestyle replete with an eminently affordable home.

II.

The Other Side of the Land Lease Community $ & Lifestyle Coin

Here’s correspondence penned by a 20 year homeowner/site lessee (i.e. resident, tenant) of a land lease community in Montana.

“…they…raised our lot rent – the monthly fee we pay for the land our homes sit on – from $285 to $450. They also started charging us new fees, like for garbage and water, which used to be included in our monthly lot rent. When you add in the extra fees, the new property owner) basically doubled our rent. And they have indicated more increases are on the way.”

What’s happening here is not unusual these days! Consolidators (i.e. land lease community portfolio owners/operators from within or outside the manufactured housing industry), in order to acquire investment grade (i.e. usually more than 100 rental homesites) properties are willing to over value and over pay for them – in the near term, enriching the sellers; but in the long term, financially handicapping homeowners/site lessees. Once in control, and to be able to pay the already known operating expenses, AND very large debt service (mortgage) payments, the new owners/operators increase the site rent rate to whatever level accomplishes these ends.

So, what’s going on here, besides the obvious? Different people call these circumstances different things. Some say profiteering (i.e. ‘making an unreasonable profit on the sale of goods’ – and or leasing scarce property rights and housing units); others say predatory land lording (i.e. ‘seeking to exploit or oppress others’), while still others simply call it capitalism.

Consequences? For those, we’ll have to, for the time being anyway, wait and see. Seriously. During my 40+ year career in manufactured housing I’ve seen and experienced our industry’s ‘boom to bust and back again’ scenario over and over. Examples:

• Mid 1970s when new ‘mobile home’ shipments experienced their historic acme level (i.e. 579,940in 1973), plummeting when prudent lending practices among banks and service companies all but disappeared, and credit (repossession loss) insurance companies unaware of their extreme exposure to uncontrolled loss ‘crashed’.

• Loan term limits in 1980 were extended out to 20 years, increasing to 30 years by 1995. Result? No equity on most ‘home-only’ loans, for extended periods of time, and down payments dropped from ten to five percent.

• During late 1990s, as manufactured housing firms competed with traditional site-builders for ‘land and home’ package sales and placement, emphasis on ‘big box = big bucks’ focused marketing attention away from in-land lease community installation of new HUD-Code homes. Consequences? Loss of easy access to chattel capital for new home seller-financing. And our industry experienced a two decades long paradigm shift characterized by new homes sold, less and less, by independent (street) MHRetailers and ‘company stores’, and more and more, directly into land lease communities (e.g. 24% in 2009; 40+% by 2016).

Now it’s two decades later and we still, as an industry, have not returned, or eclipsed the 100,000 new HUD-Code homes shipped annually benchmark. And what’s happening at the behest of some portfolio owners/operators of land lease communities, relative to rental homesite rates as just described, will not stimulate new home sales and placements! Rather, the practice is akin to ‘shooting oneself in the foot’!

Industry Watchdog Cuts Through the BS

June 19th, 2020

Blog # 590 @ 19 June 2020; Copyright 2020. Educatemhc.com

Perspective. ‘Land lease communities, previously manufactured home communities, and earlier, ‘mobile home parks’, comprise the real estate component of manufactured housing.’

EducateMHC is the online national advocate, asset class historian, data researcher, education resource, and communication media, for all land lease communities throughout North America!

To input this blog &/or affiliate with EducateMHC, telephone the Official MHIndustry HOTLINE: (877) MNFD-HSNG or 633-4764/ Also email: gfa7156@aaol.com, & visit educatemhc.com

Motto: ‘U Support US & WE Serve U!’ Goal: To promote HUD-Code manufactured housing & land lease communities as U.S.. # 1 source of affordable attainable housing! Attend MHM class!

I.

Industry Watchdog Cuts Through the BS

Were you privy to, and did you read, MHARR’s ‘take’ on HUD’s Office of Policy Development and Research (‘PD&R’) publication titled, ‘Evidence Matters’, released during June 2020? If not, I encourage you to phone (202) 783-4087 and ask its’ author, Mark Weiss, to send you a copy! *1

Why? Because Mark goes to great length to make his case, ‘An Unequaled Opportunity (Is) About to Go to Waste’! Specifically, he calls HUD out for not acknowledging ‘exclusionary zoning is a major problem for the manufactured homes it regulates’ – knowing all the while, it (‘HUD’) ‘has the statutory authority to preempt exclusionary edicts.’ And Mark goes on to describe, in detail, ‘the discriminatory lack of any meaningful federal support for manufactured home consumer financing.’ He also decries the lack of complete implementation of the Manufactured Housing Improvement Act of 2000 (a.k.a. MHIA@2000), though acknowledging the (hopefully) soon arrival of Ms. Dana Wade back at HUD as ‘the top-level political appointee with direct authority over the federal manufactured housing program.’

Stimulated enough to contact MHARR for a copy of this four page communique?!

End Note.

#a. Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform, or MHARR.

II.

What to Expect in ‘SmittyAlpha6’ Autobiography

What has been your major stay-at-home project during the coronavirus hiatus these past four months? Well, one of mine was to (maybe) finish the autobiography I’ve been penning these past several years…since finishing SWAN SONG in 2017, the combined history of manufactured housing shipments since 1955, land lease communities since 1970, and some of my career experiences. That book, by the way, is still available for purchase from EducateMHC: visit educatemhc.com Contains more MH & LLCommunity info than any other book heretofore published, or that is ‘in print’ today!

Well, I’ve pretty much completed the autobiographical narrative; now deep into content editing and proofreading for clarity and grammar usage. When will it be completed, printed, bound, and ready for distribution? Too early to tell, maybe later this year, more likely during early or mid-2021. In any event, here’s a taste of extraordinary life experiences already described therein….

As a toddler, I fell into an open cesspool behind our home in New Jersey and nearly drowned. Years later, my father taught me an ‘old foundry man’s trick’, of running one’s bare hand (in my case, two fingers) through a one inch thick stream of molten aluminum poured from a red hot crucible into a green sand mold – without being maimed! While in Vietnam, I was trained to chest-carry a soccer ball-sized nuclear munition, via helicopter, to the outskirts of Hanoi to destroy a major bridge. And shortly after returning home from overseas, our reserve USMC infantry company was activated in the middle of the night, issued combat arms and live ammunition, deputized, and ordered into Delaware River –flooded Chester, Pennsylvania, to restore law and order. A patently illegal, unprecedented, historical misadventure! Another decade later, I worked for a multiple mobile home parks owner, from the Middle East, who settled his Indiana and Kentucky major business losses by murdering a dozen attorneys and their clients, using an Uzi submachinegun, in a high rise office building in downtown San Francisco, California. And there’s more….

FYI. ‘SmittyAlpha6’ is the working title for the autobiography. What’s it mean? During the last six months of my combat tour in the Republic of South Vietnam, during 1968 & 69, I was commanding officer of A-Company, 3rd Shore Party Battalion, 3rd MARDIV. ‘SmittyAlpha6’ was my radio call sign.

III

WHITE PAPER

You likely first read about a WHITE PAPER, prepared by Next Step President Stacey Epperson & Clayton Homes Director of Communications Audrey Eason, in the current issue of MHInsider magazine. Therein, the article was titled ‘The Value of Manufactured Homes’. Did you read it? I did and was motivated to chase down a copy of said WHITE PAPER. Here’s some of what I learned from it:

• A thumbnail summary of mobile home and manufactured housing history

• A history and description of ‘affordable housing’ in U.S. markets – but sans any working definition.

• Too few ‘starter homes’, i.e. “…two-thirds of renters intend to continue renting because of financial reasons, up from 59 percent two years ago – with 11 million Americans spending more than half their paycheck on rent, according to the Home 1 Advocacy Campaign…”

• CrossMod™ “…new class of HUD-Code homes is gaining traction in larger metropolitan areas – and challenging zoning ordinances that have limited manufactured housing in the past. These homes are available at a smart, attainable price-point around $200,000, with land, in most markets.”

• Role of off-site built homes in disaster recovery plans.

• “…off-site homes can appreciate (in value) at nearly the same rate as onsite-built homes, with the national housing index experiencing an average annual increase of 3.8 percent…” Sorry; but I need to see more ‘stats’ on that one. In my experience, the only two large land lease communities, in the U.S. where large HUD-Code and modular homes routinely appreciate in value, are SaddleBrook in Grayslake, IL., and Bay Wood in Lewes, DE.

Of course there’s more in the WHITE PAPER than is being described here. One of the lingering questions, in my mind, is where do land lease communities figure into this off-site built housing picture? After all, nearly half of all new HUD-Code homes are now sold directly into land lease communities nationwide, where they are then sold and often seller-financed by the property owners/operators. Seems, to me, this WHITE PAPER delivers but ‘half a loaf’ where the overall manufactured housing industry is concerned. But hey, that’s just me a-thinking and commenting.

Hmm. Perhaps we now need a WHITE PAPER extolling ‘price point’ superiority of new off-site, HUD-Code manufactured homes going directly into land lease communities from factories. Any ‘takers’ out there? I’d be pleased to assist….

***

George Allen, CPM, MHM

Did You Know?

June 12th, 2020

Blog # 589 @ 12 June 2020; Copyright 2020. Educatemhc.com

Perspective. ‘Land lease communities, previously manufactured home communities, and earlier, ‘mobile home parks’, comprise the real estate component of manufactured housing.’

EducateMHC is the online national advocate, asset class historian, data researcher, education resource, and communication media, for all land lease communities throughout North America!

To input this blog &/or affiliate with EducateMHC, telephone the Official MHIndustry HOTLINE: (877) MFD-HSNG or 633-4764. Also email: gfa715@aol.com, & visit educatemhc.com

Motto: ‘U Support US & WE Serve U!’ Goal: To promote HUD-Code manufactured housing & land lease communities as U.S. # 1 source of affordable attainable housing! Attend MHM class!

INTRODUCTION:

I.

New Dates for 29th Networking Roundtable: 7-9 July 2021; Nashville, TN.

Already we are planning something special, out of the ordinary where manufactured housing & land lease community trade gatherings are concerned. Details to follow when timing is right!

II.

Did You Know?

May 2020 jobs report forecasted a LOSS of 9 million employment opportunities; but when actual performance numbers became available, everyone was shocked to see an INCREASE of 2.5 million jobs – making this the largest one month employment gain in U.S. history! Yes, this is the ‘makings’ of a V-shaped, rather than U-shaped economic recovery curve. So, everyone, let’s do our part to sustain this forward and upward momentum going into the summer months!

I.

42 Year Comparison of MH; Then & Now!

How Things Were in 1978, & Now, During Year 2020

This interesting topic better fits my ALLEN LEGACY column in the back end of every issue of MHInsider magazine. After all, that’s where I get to write freely about various historic aspects of manufactured housing and land lease communities. And who knows? Maybe this blog posting will be expanded upon, during the months ahead, and wind up there for even broader readership.

For now, let’s go with 1978 – 2020 comparisons relative to trade terminology, rent collection, rules & regulations, resident relations, new housing sales, rental units, consolidation of the realty asset class, REITs, professional property management, utilities, and housing finance. to name a few categories.

In 1978, even though the new HUD-Code had been enacted, during 1976, it was commonplace to hear talk of trailers, mobile homes, singlewides & doublewides, tenants & toters; also trailer park & mobile home park. Today, none of those terms are in everyday use among savvy businessmen and women. Instead, we commonly hear, write, and talk about manufactured housing & housing, singlesection & multisection homes, residents or homeowner/site lessees, and transporters; also, land lease community. And of course there’re more examples, e.g. no longer plot, lot, pad, or stall; but rather rental homesite, or simply site.

How ‘bout rent collection? Back in 1978, it was commonplace to accept cash for monthly site rent payment. And due date could well be any date during the month – usually the anniversary date of when a ‘tenant’ moved his/her home into the ‘park’. Also back then, refuse removal and water expense was included, rather than submetered and billed separately, in the monthly rental bill; but not anymore, in most portfolio owned/operated communities. Today, rent collection is via personal check or electronic means (even debit payment), and based on the same ‘due date’ each month for everyone.

Rules & Regulations were also commonplace ‘back in the day’, usually required by licensing states, to be in writing and publicly posted. Not in a licensure state? Then not something that had to be done. During the 1990s there was a push, initiated and popularized by semi-retired freelance consultant Chrissy Jackson, ACM, to refer to ‘rules & regs’ as ‘Guidelines for Living’! Better sounding moniker, for sure, but maybe not carrying the potential disciplinary weight of the perennial ‘rules & regs’ term. Today? One hears and uses both alternatives.

Then there’s resident relations. Believe it or not, this was not a widely practiced concept in the ‘manufactured home community’ business prior to the 1990s. Seriously. It wasn’t until then, that now retired Martin Newby, of Newby Management in FL., encouraged the fledgling National Communities Council (before it was a division of MHI) to embrace this resident-focused concept. Today, enlightened land lease community owners/operators speak of the 6-Rs of Resident Relation, as being Good Resident Relations = More Resident Referrals = Max Resident Retention! Not a bad rule of thumb for professional property management of this unique type income-producing realty!

Speaking of professional property management; do you realize this is the most serious shortfall of all, where land lease community management is concerned? Back in the 1970s, one could take the Certified Apartment Manager (‘CAM’) course via National Apartment Association, or Approved Resident Manager (‘ARM’) course via Institute of Real Estate Management, and ‘hope’ some of what one learned would apply to managing one’s mobile home park. Today, however, conscientious community owners/operators utilize either the Manufactured Housing Manager (‘MHM’) program available via EducateMHC.com, or MHI’s MHEI program: Accredited Community Manager (‘ACM’). The sole common denominator, re professional property management, is IREM’s Certified Property Manager (‘CPM’) program. Today, there’re only about 125 CPMs who’ve declared an affinity for this realty asset class.

New HUD-Code home sales. Now here’s where there’s been a sea change in the way we do MHBusiness! Back in the heyday of manufactured housing (i.e. 1970s) the vast majority of new housing infill within communities occurred via ‘street dealers’ & ‘company stores’ – today, collectively referred to as Independent (street) MHRetailers – a trade moniker suggested by veteran freelance consultant William Carr of Iowa. However, today, up to 50 percent of new HUD-Code homes are sold and shipped directly into land lease communities for marketing, sale, and seller-financing there! This has to do with the loss of easy access to chattel capital, by MHRetailers, at the turn of the 21st century. Today’s land lease community owners/operators well know, they have to handle new home sales and financing on their own, if they’re to survive, let alone thrive, in this business model.

A vestigial occupancy-enhancing practice of the 1970s, that all but disappeared during the next 30 years – only to return a decade or so ago, is the rental of HUD-Code homes installed on-site! Major difference? ‘Back then’, rentals were often resale and reconditioned mobile homes; today they’re almost always new HUD-Code homes. ‘Back then’, some if not many, owners/operators collected ‘unit rent’ weekly rather than monthly like site rent. Today? They go with monthly collections, but also ensure a corporate rep (maintenance man?) visits every home regularly, ‘inspecting for vermin’ and changing filters in heaters, etc. (i.e. ensuring rental unit is kept in good condition).

Consolidation. During 1970s, thru 1987, there were but 25 known portfolio owners/operators of mobile home parks/manufactured home communities across the U.S. Then the realty asset class ‘consolidated’ as syndicators (1970s & 80s), then REITs & REIT imitators (mid-1990s), Resolution Trust Corporation (‘RTC’) deals, ‘equity play’ transactions, and now hedge funds, acquired, it seems, every land lease community containing more than 100 rental homesites! Today, there are easily 500+ land lease community portfolios domiciled throughout North America. For more information, read the 31st ALLEN REPORT, available via educatemhc.com. A sidebar consequence of consolidation, among land lease communities, has to do with the wholesale negative effect the practice has had on state manufactured housing trade body membership and influence.

On-site utilities. During the 1970s, investors, for the most part, preferred to acquire mobile home parks that featured self-contained water wells/pressure tanks, and wastewater treatment facilities. Why? Put them into excellent operating condition and run them far less expensively than buying those services from local municipalities – if even available. However, all that changed, as EPA regs tightened, and effluent reporting standards made it all but impossible for small businesses to afford to operate with such close tolerances.

Sure, there are additional areas of comparison – then and now, but you surely get the idea that ‘much has indeed changed’ during the past four plus decades. What are some of the topics to maybe be covered in future blog postings, or the Allen Legacy column in MHInsider magazine?

• Unique design homes to test various markets, over time; for example, developer series homes (1990s), community series homes (2009), and now, CrossMod (2020) homes to appeal to underserved markets. Also the discussion regarding ‘big box = big bucks’ homes versus role of ADUs (Accessory Dwelling Units), and RVs as ‘homes on-site’, especially on functionally-obsolete rental homesites.

• Change from reliance, among land lease community owners/operators, on HUD-Code housing manufacturer ‘reps’ for specifying new home brand, size, features, and more. Today? Use of the do-it-yourself ‘Ah Ha! & Uh Oh! Worksheet’ to calculate ‘risky’ and ‘affordable’ price points on any home.

• Uncertain attempts, over the decades, to transition the manufactured housing industry from its historic D&R Delivery reputation (i.e. ‘Drop & Run’), relative to new home delivery, to tacit responsibility for the safe and secure installation of said homes.

• Lack of manufactured housing sales training, outside MHRetail sales centers, ‘back in the day’ versus, since year 2016, special training via factory tours and classroom instruction for land lease community owners/operators. This alone has spawned an entire array of training aids, e.g. ‘Six Right Ps of Marketing’ = Product, Place, Price, Promotion, People, Process.

• Grading and valuation of land lease communities too, has come a long long way. The Woodall System hasn’t been updated since 1976; now replaced with the ABClassification System. And would be buyers of smaller, average condition communities now routinely use the New Rule of 72, to estimate capitalized income value of such properties.

And the list goes on. Continue to read this blog posting every week, to stay ‘in the know’ about manufactured housing and land lease community operations.

George Allen, CPM, MHM. c/o EducateMHC.com

(April) MHShipment Volume Slides & (June) Stock Prices Climb!

June 5th, 2020

Blog # 588 @ 5 June 2020; Copyright 2020. Educatemhc.com

Perspective. ‘Land lease communities, previously manufactured home communities, and earlier, ‘mobile home parks’, comprise the real estate component of manufactured housing.’

EducateMHC is the online national advocate, asset class historian, data researcher, education resource, and communication media, for all land lease communities throughout North America!

To input this blog &/or affiliate with EducateMHC, telephone the Official MHIndustry HOTLINE: (877) MFD-HSNG or 633-4764. Also email: gfa7156@aol.com, & visit educatemhc.com

Motto: ‘U Support US & WE Serve U!’ Goal: To promote HUD-Code manufactured housing & land lease communities as U.S. # 1 source of affordable attainable housing! Attend MHM class!

INTRODUCTION: MHShipment Volume (+) LLCommunity Portfolio Stock Prices go different directions; ‘Smitty Alpha 6’ reappears after 52 years; and, Hint of a Very Special Happening!

I.

(April) MHShipment Volume Slides
&
(June) Stock Prices Climb!

MUST READ!

EducateMHC’s ‘MHShipment Volume for April 2020 (+) Stock Market Report’ for 3 June 2020’

This seminal report available to subscribers to the PRIME edition of The Allen Confidential! business newsletter, available via www.educatemhc.com

What’s going on? First, quotes from a national ‘Market Report on the Manufacturing Economy’, then select news tidbits from the aforementioned ‘MHShipment Volume (+) Stock Market Report’.

“Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in April after 131 consecutive months of expansion, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest ‘Manufacturing ISM Report on Business’. The report was issued on 1 May 2020. Data was obtained from a survey of manufacturing supply executives based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. “The April PMI (a composite index based on five sub-indexes) registered 41.5 percent, down 8.6 percent points from the March reading of 49.1 percent.”

A PMI reading above 50 percent indicates the manufacturing economy is expanding, and below 50 percent, that it is contracting.

IN the meantime, what’s going on with HUD-Code manufactured housing and communities?

According to the two-pronged report referenced in this blog posting (#588), new housing shipments volume was down to only 6,639 units, from 8, 338 the month before! Given the coronavirus nationwide lockdown, this was not unexpected. What can we expect for the end of May? With across the board, among all eight public MH & LLCommunity portfolio firms, increases in stock prices on 3 June 2020; well, the 30 day lag in statistical reporting should serve our industry and realty asset class well! But you really need to see, read, and ponder the details in the report proper.

Never before have manufactured housing and land lease community portfolios enjoyed the advantages of this production and investment performance-tracking tool!

II.

‘Smitty Alpha 6!’

How many of you were ‘around & about’ in the MHBusiness during 1988 when we self-published Mobile Home Park Management – the first such book on that specialized topic in 20 years? You likely know, it’s now co-authored with Erin Smith, MHM, & Susan McCarty, MHM, and has been retitled: Community Management in the Manufactured Housing Industry. It is the only professional property management book marketed by the Institute of Property Management (‘IREM’), and is the core text of the highly popular Manufactured Housing Manager (‘MHM”) certification program. To purchase the book and take the one day MHM class, visit www.educatemhc.com

But more to the point, of this second part of the blog posting, how many of you recall the J. Wiley & Sons tomes in 1994 & 1996 respectively: Development, Marketing & Operation of Manufactured Home Communities, and How to Find, Buy, Manage & Sell a Manufactured Home Community ? Well, it took me several years, with the help of dozens of industry pros, to put those two case bound textbooks together. Well, I’m now going through a similar lengthy and intense exercise, but this time alone, pulling together Smitty Alpha 6 Huh? You read that right. Anyone care to guess the meaning behind that ‘working’ title for my autobiography?

‘Smitty Alpha 6’, frankly, is the tactical radio call sign I was given when commanding officer of Company A, 3rd Shore Party Battalion, 3rd MARDIV, in the Republic of Vietnam, during late 1968 and early 1969. And so, just for the heck of it, I’ve attached it to the now burgeoning manuscript covering my boyhood years in southern New Jersey, on through college years and beyond, with ‘Lynn’ (you know her as Carolyn), and soon, daughter Susan. The ‘Vietnam Years’ chapter has provided a long awaited opportunity to share true stories, long repressed in some instances, too raw to pen 52 years ago, with family and friends.

In any event, no firm target publication date. While most of the writing is done, I’m now deep into content editing, soon to add photographs to each chapter. Here’s a ‘visual’ for you. Know how we used to med-evac our, wounded from deep in jungle canopy? Have a Huey helicopter, hover above the treetops; drop a long (150+ foot) rope, with a triangular piece of plywood as seat at the end, down to through the trees to the ground. Then we’d seat the disabled Marine on the triangle; secure him with a web belt under his armpits, looped around the rope. Up he’d go, to be flown, dangling under the chopper, for maybe 20 miles, to nearest hospital or ship, for treatment. That’s one of dozens of interesting photos I’d like to include in this book.

There will be formal announcement when the autobiography is available for purchase. In the meantime, if you want your name placed on a ‘first notice’ list of potential book buyers, let me know via gfa7156@aol.com. There’ll likely be a significant discount for being among the first to order it.

III.

Date Change & Hint of a Special Happening…

OK, OK, we’ve acquiesced (‘yielded’) to coronavirus pandemic pressure to reschedule the 29th annual Networking Roundtable! New dates are 7-9 July 2021, at the original facility, the Marriott Hotel in downtown Nashville, TN. Details to follow…

A VERY SPECIAL HAPPENING? Yep, but no details here, other than this hint: Wouldn’t you like to attend an event where something occurs that’s never taken place before in the manufactured housing industry and among land lease community portfolio owners/operators? That’s the best I can do for you here, at this time. But that’s what we’re planning, i.e. ‘To knock your socks off’, so to speak.

***

George Allen, CPM, MHM

Teaching An Old Dog New Tricks

May 28th, 2020

Blog # 587 @ 29 May 2020; Copyright 2020. Educatemhc.com

Perspective. ‘Land lease communities, previously manufactured home communities, and earlier, ‘mobile home parks’, comprise the real estate component of manufactured housing.’

EducateMHC is the online national advocate, asset class historian, data researcher, education resource, and communication media, for all land lease communities throughout North America!

To input this blog &/or affiliate with EducateMHC, telephone the Official MHIndustry HOTLINE: (877) MFD-HSNG or 633-4764. Also email: gfa7156@aol.com, & visit educataemhc.com

Motto: ‘U Support US & WE Serve U!’ Goal: To promote HUD-Code manufactured housing & land lease communities as U.S. # 1 source of affordable attainable housing! Attend MHM class!

INTRODUCTION: Pretty straightforward content today, so no explanations offered. Enjoy.

I.

Teaching An Old Dog New Tricks

Making an assumption here. Most blog floggers (‘readers’) of this weekly trade news media, are now aware of the monthly ‘MHShipment Volume (+) Stock Market Report’ I research and compile for EducateMHC. It’s distributed as a Resource Document supplement in every PRIME edition of The Allen Confidential! business newsletter. But what is probably not realized, is the degree and nature, range and specificity of the statistical research required for each monthly report.

Besides ‘crunching’ official HUD-Code manufactured housing shipment totals supplied by the Institute for Building Technology and Safety (‘IBTS’), we follow eight public companies (four HUD-Code housing manufacturers & four land lease community property portfolios), relative to their stock prices and market cap values; plus, we calculate a ‘Manufactured Housing & Land Lease Community – Composite Stock Index’ (‘CSI’). All that’s newsy and helpful enough; but ‘the fun begins’ when listening-in on quarterly earnings calls hosted by these pubic firms.

Here’s what we learned – and didn’t learn, during the last week or two, from a few calls:

• At least one HUD-Code housing manufacturer observes how new home shipment volume, going directly into land lease communities, has already returned to the 40 percent level enjoyed before COVID-19.
• Another manufacturer, while experiencing lower sales traffic thru their retail sales centers (a.k.a. ‘company stores’), see higher conversion percentages; i.e. ‘Fewer people visiting, more people buying!’

• And in some cases, retail sales centers located in close proximity to certain major SMAs, or urban centers, are experiencing ‘city folk’ now buying manufactured homes to site in rural and suburban environs.

• Finally; it was surprising (but discouraging), there’s been NO mention whatsoever of CrossMod™ home sales and placements, in any of these earning calls. Wonder why?

It’s also been interesting to observe how one or another HUD-Code manufacturer schedules earning calls as early as 8AM in the morning. And how another firm distributes its’ Form 8-K SEC filing report the same day as its’ earnings call, or so it appears. Go figure.

Point? If you’re not reading EducateMHC’s monthly ‘MHShipment Volume (+) Stock Market Report’, you should be – especially if a Wall Street investor or analyst, HUD-Code housing manufacturer, and or land lease community portfolio owner/operator. Never before, in the history of manufactured housing and land lease communities, have we tracked business and investment performance in this manner! To avail yourself of this new, continuing and illuminating opportunity, visit www.educatemhc.com and subscribe to The Allen Confidential! at the PRIME level!

Furthermore; whether in aforementioned ‘MHShipment Volume (+) Stock Market Report’ or The Allen Confidential! business newsletter, know they are your most accurate, timely, and helpful sources of MH & LLCommunity-related news! How so? Two examples quoted from April/May 2020 issue of NREI magazine:

• Of 17 commercial real estate investment categories, “Hotels, casinos, student housing assets and malls saw the largest jumps in cap rates from 31 January thru 16 March.” P.4. Manufactured housing/RVs (i.e. ‘communities’), along with ‘towers’ & ‘data centers’ experienced the smallest incremental moves in cap rates, with land lease communities at 93 basis points – compared to hotels @ 403 basis points. Did someone say our ‘communities’ are recession-proof?

• And this inside look: “Most of the equity groups have hit the pause button until they can evaluate how the virus will impact the job market long term. Jobs equal renters – it’s that simple.”P.12 And with landlord/tenant legislation in the air, another good and timely reason to be cautious about further property consolidation.

And this from a recent Press Release: REIT, UMH Properties, will conduct its’ annual meeting, 24 June, in virtual fashion! Seems more and more companies are doing so these days. There’s even talk about the highly popular and heavily attended SECO Conference, in September in Atlanta, being done conducted in like fashion, but no final decision yet. However, the 29th annual Networking Roundtable is on schedule for 2-4 September, in Nashville, TN. For information, visit www.educatemhc.com Speaking of meetings, we’ve just learned the 2nd annual Innovative Housing Showcase, on the National Mall in Washington, DC., has been postponed from this fall to sometime during year 2021.

Furthermore, here at EducateMHC we routinely go more afield, than other business news-reporting media, to glean information you can use. Here’s a news tidbit from The Epoch Times, 21-27 May 2020: “According to a study, 68 percent of people who are eligible for unemployment benefits receive compensation that exceeds their prior wage.” So, why go back to work? – they say.

II.

Response to
‘This Patriot
Practices Discerning News Intake & Citizen Punditry’
‘How ‘bout You?’

Unsolicited input from a blog flogger (reader) in California. “George, this will not surprise; but rather confirm, what you know about me. I agree with what is penned here. Do not abide much with TV news except FOX; and stick with my small town newspaper only. I began, after my wife died ten years ago, participating in local government, and have found local small community and county governments – councils and commissions, also do not participate as the ‘national media’ would like us to believe. We stick to government being simple (nothing is really simple) and focused upon protection from evil and infrastructure problems, so we can use our God-given free will to survive, worship, succeed, and find individual happiness!” NB

And this: “I’m with you!” CC

***
George Allen, CPM, MHM

This Patriot

May 24th, 2020

Blog # 586 @ 24 May 2020; Copyright 2020. Educatemhc.com

Perspective. ‘Land lease communities, previously manufactured home communities, and earlier, ‘mobile home parks’, comprise the real estate component of manufactured housing.’

EducateMHC is the online national advocate, asset class historian, data researcher, education resource, and communication media, for all land lease communities throughout North America!

To input this blog &/or affiliate with EducateMHC, telephone the Official MHIndustry HOTLINE: (877) MFD-HSNG or 633-4764. Also email: gfa7156@aol.com, & visit www.educatemhc.com

Motto: ‘U Support US & WE Serve U!’ Goal: To promote HUD-Code manufactured housing & land lease communities as U.S. # 1 source of affordable attainable housing! Attend MHM class!

INTRODUCTION: No introduction needed today. Parts I & II are self-explanatory.

I.

This Patriot

Practices Discerning News Intake & Citizen Punditry

How ‘bout You?

These are tumultuous partisan political and coronavirus times for everyone! Here’s how one individual addresses these politically-combative and life-threatening matters, from and within respective frames of reference.

I no longer read The New York Times or the Washington Post. Today I glean and model my points of view from print news published in two local daily – urban and suburban newspapers, and The Epoch Times – a weekly publication founded in year 2000, espousing truth and tradition, akin to The Christian Science Monitor.*1 News magazines? Over the decades I’ve read them all! Today I read one: World magazine*2. And after decades of frustratingly pointless TV channel surfing, I reservedly rely on FOX News, to avoid what I consider progressive opinions expressed on TV and cable channel networks. And radio? Give me Limbaugh, Katz, and Beck (author of that ‘must read’ novel The Overton Window) anytime, instead of what I used to enjoy on NPR.
Why? Having intellectually processed 40+ years of business acumen and people experience to date, I consider myself an educated and discerning ‘real news’ aficionado, with little time and no patience for fact verification backtracking, and little tolerance or stomach for liberal-slanted faux journalism, unfortunately pervasive throughout today’s print and online secular press.

So, besides being careful what I read, and from where it originates, what do I do to make my views known? I engage in citizen punditry (‘expression of learned views’) by routinely penning Letters to Editors of local newspapers; as well as carefully worded response commentaries emailed to weekly/monthly news magazines, specifically their columnists. Seriously. You should try it sometime soon, again and again.

But that’s not all there is to citizen punditry. Via methods just described, social media and more, conscientious U.S. citizens are increasingly making their views known relative to subversionary activities by ‘deep staters’, the culture war waged in this country today, and whatever other matters they feel weaken or threaten our democracy and society.

Frankly, I’d like to know what you think of discerning news intake and citizen punditry, as described here. Better yet; get busy crafting and sharing as a citizen pundit, your perspective and peerspectives. Do so via gfa7156@aol.com

End Notes.
1. The Epoch Times. Readepoch.com
2. World. Wng.org

II.

‘Sell In May & Go Away!’

Traditional stock market investment strategy for month of May pre-2020

Not this year! Recovering from the quarantine and national economic toll of coronavirus requires ALL of US to do our part in the healing process unfolding during May, June, July and August. As 75 year olds, Carolyn and I remain well-quarantined, thanks to the grocery-shopping of our daughter Susan, and outdoor chores assistance of son Adam. And we remain as engaged as possible; me, writing to you weekly, monthly (The Allen Confidential!), and via MHInsider magazine (‘Allen Legacy’ column). Carolyn is a longtime CASA (Court-appointed special advocate for children) volunteer, and ‘works her case load’ daily by phone and PC.

So, stay engaged and do your part to ensure our great nation returns to the prosperity we’ve temporarily left behind during the coronavirus pandemic! Next week I’ll share some insights gleaned from recent ‘earnings calls’ by some of our eight public MH/LLCommunity companies active in the U.S. today! GFA

Land Lease Community = Lifestyle of Choice During Pandemic?

May 15th, 2020

Blog # 585 @ 15 May 2020; Copyright 2020. Educatemhc.com

Perspective. ‘Land lease communities, previously manufactured home communities, and earlier, ‘mobile home parks’, comprise the real estate component of manufactured housing.’

EducateMHC is the online national advocate, asset class historian, data researcher, education resource, and communication media, for all land lease communities throughout North America!

To input this blog &/or affiliate with EducateMHC, telephone the Official MHIndustry HOTLINE: (877) MFD-HSNG or 633-4764. Also email: gfa7156@aol.com, & visit www.educatemhc.com

Motto: ‘U Support US & WE Serve U!’ Goal: To promote HUD-Code manufactured housing & land lease communities as U.S. # 1 source of affordable attainable housing! Attend MHM class!

INTRODUCTION: Well, here’s your weekly update relative to the coronavirus hiatus; a look at what is amounting to a ‘lost opportunity’ for the manufactured housing industry – and ‘what to do about it’. Also, an announcement of a new website designed to help homeowners and renters to survive the COVID-19.

I.

Land Lease Community = Lifestyle of Choice During Pandemic?

HOW SO?

Just as there’re more births occurring at home these days than in hospitals – due to fear of coronavirus infection, and fathers prohibited from being present for the event, land lease community homeowners/site lessees are demonstrating support for their lifestyle, by paying March and April rent on time and in full. And May’s rent collection appears, to date, to be off to a near equally strong start – according to recent ‘earnings calls’ by public owners/operators of land lease community portfolios. And this from the National Multi Housing Council:

“Data from the National Multifamily Housing Council shows 80.2% of tenants had paid at least some of their rent by May 6, compared with 78% during the same time period in April. However, rent payments were down from May 2019, and some activists say they will continue with plans for rent strikes to put pressure on lawmakers.”

Hmm. And why might land lease communities be outperforming other types of multifamily rental properties? Well, unlike other forms of multifamily rental (and condo) housing – thinking conventional and subsidized apartment communities here, the manufactured housing owner/site lessee, in a land lease community, is living in a self-contained structure, not sharing walls and risking personal exposure in hallways with other tenants or residents. In other words, they’re more in control of their living environment (i.e. easy to social distance 24 hours per day), as to who comes and goes than would otherwise be the case. This is also the likely reason the investment value of this unique, income-producing property type has remained strong of late.

On a related matter, a recent article in Shelterforce magazine (Think tenant social activists), and titled ‘What Would It Mean to Cancel Rent?’ raises this related issue:

“…decommodified housing in the form of co-ops, land trusts, and nonprofit- owned housing already exist – housing a couple million households – and they all rely on rent payments of some sort for their ongoing operations. Calls to suspend or cancel rent payments across the board have made man managers of this type of housing uncomfortable. On the one hand, not having people on the street or struggling under additional rent burden is central to their mission, and none of them believe rent should be demanded right now from people who can’t pay.” Thinking of resident-owned communities or ROCs here….

So, where does all this leave us today? Depends on what one reads, sees, and hears in trade literature, personal experience, and on webinars, e.g. following out of context webinar observations.

• The Carlyle Group in Washington, DC. an owner/operator of a land lease community portfolio, anticipates more of a U-shaped economic recovery curve, vs. V-shaped one, during next few months.

• Warren Buffett & Sam Zell haven’t “…found anything to buy since the onset of the pandemic.” Lack of deals, due to a large spread, between seller expectations and buyer caution.

• While REIT shares “…are down almost 30% since late February” (Confirmed via EducateMHC’s monthly MH ‘Shipment Volume (+) Stock Market’ Report), rents are holding up well – as just pointed out. To access subject report, visit www.educatemhc.com

Do you have observations and opinions, on this complex and evolving topic that you’d like to share here and or in The Allen Confidential! Business newsletter? Simply email or mail your manuscript to me via gfa7156@aaol.com & GFA c/o Box # 47024, Indianapolis, IN. 46147.

II.

Essence of Manufactured Housing’s Lack of Regulatory Reform Progress, Expressed in One Paragraph!

The following paragraph (lightly edited & only slightly enhanced. GFA) was the final one of 14 comprising MHARR’s typically wordy manufactured housing update, dated May 2020, and titled:

‘A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE INDUSTRY AND CONSUMERS’.

“…the industry has wasted more than three years of President Trump’s first term and what is, without question, the most promising opportunity it has ever had, to achieve real and lasting regulatory reform within the HUD manufactured housing program. The current ‘slow-roll’ of the regulatory reform process by HUD, its contractors, and other allies, should be a ‘red flag’, a warning to the industry that this opportunity without immediate, targeted, aggressive action, could be lost! There is sufficient time, for now, to change course and move this process forward, but it must be a priority for senior-level decision makers at HUD, within the industry itself (including the Manufactured Housing Institute – MHI), for consumers of affordable housing, and within OMHP (including Administrator Teresa Payne). Put differently, the ‘crunch-time’ for significant action to help both the HUD Code industry and consumers of affordable housing is right now!”

As everyone reading this blog well knows, MHARR headquartered in downtown Washington, DC. has long been regarded, as it still is, the Watchdog of the Manufactured Housing Industry. And the above paragraph is fairly standard fare coming from the pen of Mark Weiss. With that said, however, he cannot pull off regulatory reform alone, just as MHI and NAMHCO (North American Manufactured Housing Communities Owners), as industry and realty asset class advocates cannot. What’s missing? In my opinion, based on 40+ years of observation and experience, as a business owner and land lease community owner/operator, constant cooperation and lobbying among all three national trade entities, is where such timely and vital efforts must begin and concentrate.

III.

CFPB, FHFA*, & HUD Launch Joint Mortgage & Housing Website, during COVID-19

This website is designed to ensure homeowners and renters have the most up to date and accurate housing assistance information possible, during these turbulent times. Interested parties should visit cfpb.gov/housing

End Note. FHFA includes the two GSEs (Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac) as well as the Federal Home Loan Banks.

***

George Allen, CPM, MHM
EducateMHC

Postscript.

If you haven’t heard or read yet, EducateMHC’s monthly MH ‘Shipment Volume (+) Stock Market’ Report brings something to the manufactured housing industry and land lease community realty asset class, we’ve not had, ever before – during our 75 year history! And that is unadulterated new MH shipment volume totals tallied by the Institute for Building Technology & Safety (‘IBTS’) – HUD’s perennial contractor for this very purpose; AND, the stock market performance of four public market HUD-Code housing manufacturers and as many land lease community portfolio owners/operators! If this new cache of timely and useful information is of interest to you, and it certainly should be, subscribe to The Allen Confidential! business newsletter as a PRIME subscriber! Do so today: www.educatemhc.com

CORONAVIRUS X 6

May 8th, 2020

Blog # 584 @ 8 May 2020; Copyright 2020. Educatemhc.com

Perspective. ‘Land lease communities, previously manufactured home communities, and earlier, ‘mobile home parks’, comprise the real estate component of manufactured housing.’

EducateMHC is the online national advocate, asset class historian, data researcher, education resource, and communication media, for all land lease communities throughout North America!

To input this blog &/or affiliate with EducateMHC, telephone the Official MHIndustry HOTLINE: (877) MFD-HSNG or 633-4764. Also email: gfa7156@aol.co, & visit www.educatemhc.com

Motto: ‘U Support US & WE Serve U!’ Goal: To promote HUD-Code manufactured housing & land lease communities as U.S. # 1 source of affordable attainable housing! Attend MHM class!

INTRODUCTION: On a personal note. Friday, 6 May is the 55th day Carolyn and I’ve been self-quarantined together at home. Two days later, we’ll celebrate 57 years we’ve been together since meeting poolside at college, on 9/10/1963. And in a couple weeks we’ll turn 57 around, as I celebrate my 75th birthday! What’s all this have to do with the coronavirus hiatus? Nothing.

However, I think you’ll agree. After 75 years of history, HUD-Code manufactured housing and land lease communities, where eight public companies are concerned, finally have a tracking report in place for tallying new housing shipments and stock performance as well. Enjoy!

I.

CORONAVIRUS X 6

OK, be honest. Are YOU as ‘cornfused’ as I am about ‘how & what’ to call or describe the coronavirus illness that’s changed our lives these past (now) several months? Well, decided to start making a list of name variants as I came across them in the print and online press. Here’re seven documented to date.

Coronavirus

Coronavirus disease 2019; abbreviated as COVID-19 (all in capital letters)

Novel coronavirus (per Chinese Communist Party or CCP)

Wuhan virus (named after Chinese city from whence it came)

CCP virus. Moniker espoused by THE EPOCH TIMES newspaper, directly blaming Chinese Communist Party (‘CCP’) for outbreak of the disease.

Chinese virus, per President Donald Trump. And why not? Think Legionnaire’s Disease.

Do you know of additional variants? If so, please let us know via gfa7156@aol.com

A clue as to how many more Chinese citizens fell victim to the coronavirus than what the CCP has claimed:

Headline: ’21 Million Fewer Cellphone Users in China May Suggest a High CCP Virus Death Toll’ – as cellphones are used (required) by everyone in China – to display colored (green is good) health codes necessary for personal travel.

And this: “Hubei Province (Wuhan city) has used 40 mobile cremators, each capable of burning five tons of medical waste and bodies a day, since February 16th.” P.19

Both texts from The Epoch Times weekly newspaper. In my opinion, a better and far more reliable investigative journalism ‘read’ than either The New York Times or The Washington Post.

II.

MHShipment Volume (+) Stock Market Report

Previously referred to as EducateMHC’s

MHShipment ‘#s&$s’ Report, March 2020 (+) 5/4/20 ‘MH Mfr/REIT Market Data’

Here we implement three changes to what’s already become a seminal monthly data report serving the manufactured housing industry and land lease community realty asset class.

First, a simpler, more descriptive title for said document. ‘MHShipment Volume (+) Stock Market Report’ describes two production and investment performance platforms of vital and ongoing interest to the industry & property type.

Next. We’ve expanded coverage to include the heretofore ‘Big Three C’ (i.e. Clayton, Cavco, Skyline/Champion) firms, plus one (i.e. Legacy), HUD-Code housing manufacturers. And now four – not just three, land lease community portfolio owners/operators, three of which are real estate investment trusts (‘REITs’), i.e. ELS, SUI, UMH, and newcomer MHPC.

Finally. Effective with this March 2020 (+) 5/4/20 edition of the ‘MHShipment Volume (+) Stock Market Report’, distribution is restricted to PRIME subscribers to The Allen Confidential! business newsletter, available only from EducateMHC (www.educatemhc.com)

In paragraphs following here, I’ll share a few salient details from this dual monthly report; but for all the useful details, again, you’ll have to subscribe to the PRIME edition of TAC!

Meet MHPC or Manufactured Housing Properties, Inc. The firm, founded during 2016, debuted in the 31st annual ALLEN REPORT (i.e. ‘Who’s Who Among Land Lease Community Portfolio Firms Located Throughout North America!) and was ranked # 88, after ‘going public’ during late 2019. The firm has its’ home office in Pineville, NC. And is headed by President Michael Anise.

MHShipments. MHARR summarizes performance best. “…HUD Code manufacturers produced 8,338 homes in March 2020, a 9.8% increase over the 7,590 new HUD Code homes produced during March 2019. Cumulative 2020 production now stands at 25,311 homes as compared with 22,569 homes produced over the same period in 2019, an increase of 13.2%.” Quoted from MHARR News Item dated 4 May 2020.

As you likely expect, stock prices for all eight firms dropped between March and April as the coronavirus hiatus exacted its’ health and economic tolls. The good news is everyone’s stock price rebounded, somewhat, between April and early May! Will be interesting to see what occurs as we move from May to June, reopening our national economy.

If you’ve never compared market cap (values) of HUD-Code housing manufacturers and land lease community portfolios, it makes for an interesting study. They too are included in this report. For now, however, let’s just say – excepting out Berkshire-Hathaway and MHPC , both outliers, remaining market cap values range from a low of $263 million to a high of $12 billion.

Finally. For the long term, we (EducateMHC) have created a composite stock index to calculate and publish monthly. During March it was 577; dropped to 357 during April, but now, in May, is up to 480. What to expect in June? Your guess is as good as mine.

Are you presently a subscriber, either BASIC or PRIME, to The Allen Confidential! ? If not, you should be. Why? Simple. No one else in North America, especially where land lease communities are concerned, routinely researches and publishes more apropos information than EducateMHC! You can be satisfied with just the ‘news gathering’ aspect of the newsletter, or pay extra and receive a minimum of a dozen Resource Documents each year – beginning with the 31 year run ALLEN REPORT in January of each new year! Visit www.educatemhc.com and upgrade to PRIME today! GFA

A Sobering & Timely Warning!

May 1st, 2020

Blog # 583 @ 1 May 2020; Copyright 2020. Educatemhc.com

Perspective. ‘Land lease communities, previously manufactured home communities, and earlier, ‘mobile home parks’, comprise the real estate component of manufactured housing.’

EducateMHC is the online national advocate, asset class historian, data researcher, education resource, and communication media, for all land lease communities throughout North America!

To input this blog &/or affiliate with EducateMHC, telephone the Official MHIndustry HOTLINE: (877) MFD-HSNG or 633-4764. Also email: gfa7156@aol.com, & visit www.educatemhc.com

Motto: ‘U Support US & WE Serve U!’ Goal: To promote HUD-Code manufactured housing & land lease communities as U.S. # 1 source of affordable attainable housing! Attend MHM class!

INTRODUCTION: Prepare to be shocked – if you haven’t already heard and pondered statistics shared in Part I following. And Part II? Well, while not meant to be particularly humorous, there is indeed that overtone among the vignettes shared. Enjoy! GFA

I.

A Sobering & Timely Warning!

Carolyn and I have invested 50 days in self-quarantine, to avoid becoming victims of the coronavirus. So, when I read the following statistics relative to the Spanish Flu of 1917 & 1918, I was reluctant to believe the numbers. Then I checked them via USA Today Fact Check. Learned they are indeed accurate ranges, elevating them as a Sober and Timely Warning to All of Us about Our Future, especially during fall 2020!

First wave of the Spanish Flu, during year 1917, resulted in between three and five million deaths worldwide! Compare that to what’s estimated worldwide during year 2021.

Second wave of the Spanish Flu, during year 1918 and slightly beyond, resulted in between, get this, 20 – 50 million deaths! How can there be such an enormous spread between those two numbers?

In any event; as you – we, plan social and economic activities the next several months, be aware: We do not want a repeat, via coronavirus, of the tenfold increase in Spanish Flu deaths slightly more than 100 years ago!

II.

MH & LLCommunity Trivia

One of the unexpected benefits of being self-quarantined at home, these past 50 days, has been reacquainting myself with books (being read for a second or third time), dusty personal files (of past tales and collected material), as well as trivia from 40+ years as a manufactured housing aficionado and land lease community owner/operator. One archive of MH & LLCommunity trivia is dated year 2000. And much of it is worth sharing here.

Let’s begin with ‘an‘oldie but a goodie’. Why is the front entry door to most HUD-Code singlesection manufactured homes – to this day – on the right side of the home (from the perspective of being in said home and facing forward)? This is a vestigial design practice dating to when ‘mobile homes’ were indeed mobile; and, ingress/egress, for traffic safety reasons, was curbside, i.e. in and out of the right side of the home, away from the traffic lanes of the highway.

Just as REIT name MHC, Inc. evolved to ELS, Inc; ROC Communities (Think, now retired, Gary McDaniel) merged and became Chateau Properties, Inc. in 1997, before being acquired by Hometown America during year 2003. Do you know what the abbreviation ROC represented at that time? No, it wasn’t ‘resident-owned communities’, but rather River Oaks Communities! And how ‘bout REIT Sun Communities? That firm’s ‘early’ name? Some say Sundance Communities. Speaking of REITs, which one’s founder and son are trotter (as in horse racing) fans and use their favorite standard bred steed, The Porter Gray, in their corporate literature? UMH Properties!

Famous and infamous land lease community owners? Let’s see, a former Playboy magazine ‘bunny’ was – and is, as far as I know, still married to a Colorado-based portfolio owner/operator of communities. And at one point in time, late in the last century, a ‘mass murderer’ (i.e. by dint of killing several attorneys and their clients, before committing suicide) in San Francisco, effected his revenge, during a downtown rampage, because a ‘three community deal had gone bad’ a decade earlier. And we’ve had our share – at least two or three I know of – billionaires intimately involved in manufactured housing and communities. If you’d like names, and are willing to dig a bit to get them, read SWAN SONG and ‘Who Will Preserve Your Legacy?’ booklet – both available from EducateMHC.com

To this day, real estate brokers marketing land lease communities default to the 50 years defunct Woodall Rating System to inform property owners their asset quality is of one to five stars in rankikng. Since year 2001, informed owners/operators have used the ABClassification System, first proposed by the late Tom Horner, Jr., now refined and available in its’ contemporary format via EducateMHC.com

In which state can ‘swamp coolers’ (i.e. evaporators) be routinely seen atop HUD-Code manufactured homes? Colorado.

In which city and state is the prestigious RV/MH Hall of Fame, Library, and Museum located? Elkhart, Indiana.

In which state does the term ‘Chapter 723’ bespeak landlord tenant legislation? Florida.

In which land lease communities and states did ‘two story’ HUD-Code manufactured homes debut around the turn of the century? Lido Peninsula in Newport Beach, California & New Colony in Maryland. Why didn’t this novel idea flourish? Too much expensive and time-consuming ‘make ready’ work (e.g. assembly and siding) required on-site.

The Hitchball Club, a social organization for manufactured housing industry peers was formed during the 1970s in what state? Indiana

FGFK has been one of the more unusual monikers for a land lease community portfolio, over the years. What is the unabbreviated name of the company? Five Guys From Kansas.

What now deceased land lease community owner named his portfolio in honor of his first wife’s profession (i.e. Ballerina Properties); owned the only known source of flint in the U.S., if not the world; repeatedly attempted to popularize the term Park Homes as alternative to manufactured homes; and, was one of 19 community owners who met in Indianapolis during August 1993, to form what would later become MHI’s National Communities Council division? The late Ron Richardson of Oklahoma and Nevada.

Which John Grisham novel begins in a land lease community? The Client.

In the U.S. we refer to PITI, in real estate transaction circles, as principle, interest, taxes and insurance, when calculating monthly mortgage payments. In Canada, however, they refer to a similar combination of factors as being PITH. What does the H represent? Heating expense, as it’s more an expense factor to contend with there, than insurance premiums.

Name of a bona fide musical set in a land lease community? Premiered in Chicago during early 2001. Name? Lust in Rust!

Name of a country singer duo specializing in land lease community-oriented tunes since mid-1990s? Trailer Park Troubadours.

Ever hear of the large land lease community, located across a major highway from an active USAF base (i.e. at the time, home to Air Force One, the president’s airplane) that was forcibly closed, via eminent domain, out of concern a terrorist might step out on his porch, with a shoulder-fired ground-to-air missile, and shoot down said plane? This occurred in central Indiana, north of Kokomo, two decades or more ago.

Yes, there’s more, much more, we can share with you in the coming weeks. But for now, enjoy these gems. Do you have some trivia to share? Send to gfa7156@aol.com

For that matter, if you enjoy reading history-laced stories from our industry and realty asset class, you should be reading the Allen Legacy column in the very back of every issue of MHInsider magazine. To subscribe, reach out to Patrick Revere via Patrick@mhvillage.com

George Allen, CPM, MHM
EducateMHC