Archive for April 23rd, 2018

Rare Look Into ‘Why & How’ of MH Rebound

Monday, April 23rd, 2018

Blog # 483; Copyright @ 23 April 2018; community-investor.com

Perspective. ‘Land lease communities previously manufactured home communities, & ‘mobile home parks’, comprise the real estate component of manufactured housing.’

This blog posting is the sole national advocate, voice, official ombudsman, historian, research report & online communication media for all North American LLCommunities

To input this blog &/or affiliate with Community Owners (7 Part) Business Alliance, a.k.a. COBA7, use Official MHIndustry HOTLINE: (877) MFD-HSNG or 633-4764

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INTRODUCTION. Manufactured housing ‘housers’ (‘aficionados’) are on the cusp of solving this nation’s widely acknowledged affordable housing crisis. Bet you didn’t know that. Well, ‘read on’ to learn the ‘whys & wherefores’ of this timely and titillating opportunity! We hinted at this exciting state of national housing affairs in last week’s posting ‘Retrospect & Prospect’- which many of you responded to with notes of agreement, encouragement, and support. Now, here – following a short MH history lesson, is what YOU need to know and do to ensure the present new HUD-Code housing shipment rebound momentum continues throughout year 2018 and into the next year!

Rare Look Into ‘Why & How’ of MH Rebound

Manufactured housing’s NEW ERA Paradigm Shift, away from HUD-Code housing distribution via independent (street) MHRetailers, to a New Breed of MHRetailer & Lender, has redefined the industry & its’ land lease community real estate asset class!

Did you know?

New HUD-Code housing shipments have increased from the historic nadir of 49,789 units during year 2009, to 92,902 by year end 2017. (Believe no other published total!) That’s an increase of 86+ percent (i.e. .86). For example 49,789 X 1.8659 = 92,902.

Do you know WHAT facilitated this stunning improvement? Two innovations.

The debut of Community Series Homes, or CSH Models in 2009, per agreement between 100 HUD-Code home manufacturers & (then) manufactured home community owners/operators meeting together at the RV/MH Hall of Fame in Elkhart, Indiana.

Then, the increasing volume of new HUD-Code homes, including CSH models, shipped directly from factories into (now) land lease communities nationwide! Seriously. In year 2009, only 24 percent of new homes (or 12,000+/-) did so; however, by year end 2015, that percentage jumped to more than 40 percent of new homes shipped (or 28,000+). And it’s estimated, by year end 2017, that percentage rose, once again, to more than 50 percent, or 46,400+/- units.

And frankly, given present trend volume, the industry could eclipse 100,000 new housing shipments by year end 2018, and (“Gasp!”) 200,000 units by 2022! But first…

Do you know WHY this is happening?

Sure you do, we just told you. But now, a quick glance back to the turn of the century, when easy access to chattel capital, to finance new home loans within communities, disappeared for good reasons – and has yet to return. Consequences? There have been two…

Disappearance of an estimated 10,000+/- independent (street) MHRetailers, as their independent third party sources of chattel capital dried up, and some sales centers were acquired by HUD-Code manufacturers desperate to continue the flow of new homes into already saturated local housing markets.

Owners/operators of land lease communities ‘picked up the housing distribution slack’, by ordering new HUD-Code homes directly from factories, then selling and often seller-financing them on-site, even ‘renting’ them at times – in the face of increased state and federal regulation of mortgage lending.

Do you know WHAT has to now occur to sustain new home shipment rebound velocity?

Many of the 500+/- known land lease community portfolio firms already buy new HUD-Code homes, by the dozen and half dozen, from manufactured housing factories. They’ve got that drill figured out, even the home mortgage part – whether financing comes via factory-sponsored programs, independent third party chattel capital sources, local lenders, private investors, or from ‘within their properties cash flow’, i.e. given little to no realty debt service or mortgage in place..

Some community portfolio firms, however, are just learning and effecting this buy-sell-finance routine, as are thousands of smaller (i.e. 100+/- rental homesite) properties. But guess what? The majority of these latter day New Breed of MHRetailers & Lenders are just now learning the drill. How?

By attending specially designed one and two day educational programs, usually hosted by state manufactured housing associations, sometimes HUD-Code housing manufacturers.

For example. The Two Days of New Home Sales Seminars & Plant Tours scheduled for 8 & 9 May, at the RV/MH Hall of Fame in Elkhart, IN. Participation is limited to 200, so if interested, don’t hesitate to register. Phone (317) 247-6258 X 14, or visit www.imharvic.org/homesalesplanttours/

Do you know HOW factory-sponsored & community-focused sales training might differ?

Traditional new home distribution was, and still is, oft characterized by product choice recommendations by factory representatives (‘reps’); where emphasis is on ‘making the deal’, i.e. selling from ‘commission to commission’; and, maximizing the $ value of every transaction.

Community-focused distribution is (or should be) characterized by product choice and price points tailored to the local housing market (e.g. via Area Median Income or AMI), and, when a homebuyer/site lessee prospect is in hand, so to speak, their individual or household Annual Gross Income or AGI; and, carefully screening and qualifying them. Another significant difference, in community environs is, the penchant of some, if not many, owners/operators’ to narrow their profit margin between wholesale and retail value of the transaction to ‘make the deal’, sell the lifestyle, and cultivate an annuity-like income (i.e. site rent) for decades to come.

Do you know HOW to estimate new & resale, ‘affordable vs. risky’ housing price points per local housing markets defined by postal zip code, and individual/household AGI?

That’s the simplest HOW TO portion of this challenge to sustain manufactured housing shipment rebound volume!

Obtain a copy of this oddly named, but eminently practical, ‘Ah Ha! & Uh Oh! Worksheet’, for FREE, by phoning the Official MHIndustry HOTLINE: (877) MFD-HSNG or 633-4764 & asking for it! The procedure is clearly described, and examples given for AMI & AGIs of $36,000 (typical MH owner AGI) & $51,229 (national average AMI).

Or, if you own a copy of the industry bestselling text, SWAN SONG, turn to Figure H, on pages # 45 & 46. First edition inventory has been depleted; second edition available on or about 1 May 2018. For pricing, and to order, simply phone the above-listed telephone number.

Here’s a description of the ” ‘Ah Ha! & Uh Oh! Formulae estimates maximum recommended ‘affordable & risky’ purchase prices for new & resale, privately -owned homes of any type, sited on realty owned fee simple with home, or on leased land in community”

Do you know WHAT the bottom line is to all that’s been penned here so far?

The HUD-Code manufactured housing industry is indeed, on a significant rebound! Here, we’ve shown you that, and what it’s taken to get to this point. But moving forward, more has to be done. Here’s a partial list of the desired (needed) influences along the way:

• More factories and state manufactured housing associations to train their land lease community members how to ‘buy, sell, & seller-finance’ new homes on-site!

• Ensure better and reasonable access to chattel capital, via manufacturer-sponsored programs, independent third party chattel lenders; local banks, private investors, and more. Know there’s a movement afoot to create a not for profit cooperative to serve as liaison between community owners/operators and lenders.

• Enlist marketing assistance from the Department of Housing & Urban Affairs (‘HUD’). After all; they regulate the industry and recognize HUD-Code housing as the most affordable of all housing types in the U.S. today! So, why not actively promote manufactured housing as well?

• Encourage the Federal Housing Finance Agency (‘FHFA’), GSEs Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac, to vigorously engage with their Duty to Serve (‘DTS’) pilot programs in behalf of the manufactured housing industry (i.e. housing finance) and communities nationwide! Meet these public servants on 6 September 2018, at the 27th annual International Networking Roundtable, in Indianapolis, IN.

Do YOU know HOW to become INVOLVED on the national level as an MH advocate?

• Become a direct, dues-paying member of one or both national advocates for manufactured housing, Manufactured Housing Institute (MHI welcomes all segments of the industry via 703/558-0400) & Manufactured Housing Association for Regulatory Reform (MHARR welcomes only HUD-Code housing manufacturers via 202/783-4087).

• Affiliate with the Community Owners (7 Part) Business Alliance. COBA7 is the ‘product & service’ supplier to the manufactured housing industry. It’s the source of this blog, the ‘Ah Ha! & Uh Oh! Worksheet’ offered for FREE, & copies of SWAN SONG, for starters. COBA7 is also one of the sponsors of the upcoming Two Days of Home Sales Seminars & Plant Tours, in Elkhart, IN. @ 8 & 9 May – via (317) 247-6258 X 14. Again, to reach COBA7, email gfa7156@aol.com

Now that you understand the ‘whys & wherefores’ of the manufactured housing shipment rebound 2009 – 2018, it behooves YOU to do your part to sustain that positive momentum thru year 2022 and beyond!

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George Allen, CPM, MHM
COBA7, a division of GFA Management, Inc., dba PMN Publishing
Box # 47024
Indianapolis, IN. 46247
(317) 346-7156