‘Jim Keller, Where Are You?’, HUD-Code Shipment Analysis; &, ‘Cut Bait or Go for the Big One!’

Blog # 439 Copyright @ 26 March 2017; community-investor.com

Perspective. ‘Land lease communities, previously manufactured home communities, & ‘mobile home parks’, comprise the real estate component of manufactured housing.’

This blog posting is the sole national advocate voice, official ombudsman & historian, research report, & online communication media for North American LLCommunities!

To input this blog &/or affiliate with Community Owners (7 Part) Business Alliance, a.k.a. COBA7, use Official MHIndustry HOTLINE: (877) MFD-HSNG or 633-4764.

COBA7 Motto: ‘U Support US & WE Serve U!’ Goal of its’ print/online media = to ‘Not only inform & opine, but transform & improve MHBusiness model performance!’
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INTRODUCTION:

We’ve all seen visionaries and activists come and go in the manufactured housing business. Jim Keller was one of those unique personalities. While a staffer at the Indiana MHAssociation, nearly a decade ago, he launched the Super Symposium movement that continues to this day.

Louisiana, Michigan, Florida, Maryland & Indiana ‘lead the way’, 2017 trending wise, when it comes to increasing the number of new HUD-Code homes being shipped in-state.

And, ‘Cut Bait or Go for the Big One!’ – that ‘line in the sand’ article – for HUD’s The FACTs newsletter, is in the hands of the department’s manufactured housing program staff. Let’s watch to see if/when it gets published under Secretary Dr. Ben Carson’s leadership. That will tell you whether the next four years will be maintenance of status quo – or expect Big Changes to the relationship between the manufactured housing industry and its’ federal regulator (business as usual) and or promoter (badly needed)!

Finally. Read upcoming issues of the Allen CONFIDENTIAL! business newsletter, the Allen Letter professional journal, and this weekly blog posting, for changes in how Community Owners (7 Part) Business Alliance provides products & services to land lease community owners/operators nationwide! It has been pointed out repeatedly, of late, NO OTHER NATIONAL TRADE ADVOCATE or REPRESENTATIVE, other than COBA7, researches; prepares, produces & distributes benchmark statistics, salient reports & directories, asset class-focused news stories; and, professional property management training and certification opportunities in classroom settings. Yes, something special is a-coming….

I.

Jim Keller, Where Are You?

Well, he’s moved onto other challenges, but his idea of planning & hosting manufactured housing state and regional Super Symposiums, continues to thrive in Atlanta, GA., Albany, NY., & Indianapolis, IN.

Nearly a decade ago, while on staff at the IMHA/RVIC in Indianapolis, Jim planned and facilitated the first symposium for land lease community owners/operators. His inaugural event was a complete success for the state MHAssociation. Unfortunately, ‘industry hard times’ prevailed, and Jim found himself without a job. But not before he was invited to Atlanta, GA., where frustrated LLCommunity owners were attempting to rally their number for some sort of training and networking function. There he shared the symposium concept; and a year or so later, what’s known today as SECO was born.

SECO, short for Southeast Community Owners, has grown and grown and grown during the past several years. During 2016, the event attracted m ore than 200 participants, featured a half dozen Community Series Homes on display – and for purchase. Several dozen vendors displayed their wares and explained their wide range of services. The event has become so well-regarded and attended, there’s some discussion about it becoming the East coast equivalent of the annual MHCongress in Las Vegas.

What’s in store this year, for SECO 2017? Bigger than ever before, expecting more than 350 owners/operators of land lease communities to convene at the Hilton Marietta Conference Center. Already 42 vendors and exhibitors committed, along with several Community Series Homes (manufactured homes) on display to buy! Dates? 11 & 12 October 2017, with pre-SECO workshops on the 10th of October. For more information, visit www.SECOConference.com I know I certainly plan to be present for the three day event!

The next region to catch Jim Keller’s vision of Super Symposiums, was the New York Housing Association. Here too, land lease community owners/operators flock to be educated and engage in some serious interpersonal networking. In their case, they attract MHIndustry folk from throughout New England, PA, NJ, NY, MD, & DE. – all coming for the education and networking value, and some years, new HUD-Code homes on display. On 4/11 dozens of LLCommunity managers will be trained and certified as Manufactured Housing Managers, or MHMs. And on the 12th & 13th, they’ll learn Fair Housing from Rick Robinson, esquire, of MHI; industry stats from Dr. David Funk, and the State of the MHIndustry & LLCommunity Asset Class from yours truly. So, plan to be in Albany, NY., 12 & 13. For info, phone (800) 721-HOME & www.nyhousing.org

So, what’s happened in Indianapolis since Jim departed several years ago? Well, the IMHA/RVIC continues to plan and host annual symposiums for their land lease community owners/operators from throughout the Midwest. One will be held this Fall; dates to be announced.

II.

New HUD-Code Home Shipments Trend Analysis 2017

As manufactured housing’s statistician, COBA7 was recently made privy to composite MH shipment data, per state, going back a full decade in time. What this information allows, is for analysts to compare ‘ten year monthly shipment averages per state’, with how many new HUD-Code homes are being shipped per month to date, into the same states.

For example, the state of Nevada = total of 2,248 new HUD-Code homes shipped into the state during the decade (1/1/2007-12/31/2016). Divide this total by ’10’, to average 225 per year; then divide by 12 months = 19 new homes shipped/month, on the average during that decade. Now, how’s that compare with month ending 12/31/2016? Well, there were 36 new HUD-Code homes shipped that month, so a positive trend of 15 units or homes!

Here’re the Top Ten states, led by a Louisiana anomaly (to be ‘splained’ later):

• Louisiana 1458*
• Michigan 228
• Florida 113
• Maryland 66
• Indiana 35
• N. Carolina 23
• Oregon 21
• Rhode Island 19
• Alabama 19
• Nevada 15
• California 11

Here’re the Bottom Ten states, with fewer homes being shipped 2017 YTD
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• N. Dakota (55)
• Oklahoma (54)
• Virginia (49)
• Texas (44)
• Missouri (39)
• Alaska (38)
• Tennessee (38)
• W. Virginia (35)
• Arkansas (33)
• Illinois (33)

There are surely interesting stories behind each of these ‘jumps & falls in shipments’. Perhaps the most interesting, is the state of Louisiana. Here, the composite 1,458 new homes is double the 749 shown on the IBTS report for January 2017, and slightly fewer than the 1,900 identified by the IBTS during December 2016.. When queried, turns out theses are large numbers of FEMA homes being shipped into the state during December and January.

III.

‘Cut Bait or Go for the Big One!

Well, the manufactured housing-focused article bearing this provocative title, is now in the hands of HUD staff, responsible for compiling the department’s periodic newsletter, The FACTs. Will it get published? Only time will tell. Copies of the manuscript will soon appear within the April issue of the Allen CONFIDENTIAL! business newsletter.

In the meantime, correspondence continues to arrive at COBA7 offices, expressing opinions, mostly by land lease community owners/operators, as to the gist of the aforementioned article. Here’s latest input:

“I agree wholeheartedly with the response you quoted in this blog posting. I too want to remove all restrictions that impede me from filling vacant rental homesites with quality residents who want our housing product and can afford it!

Regarding the continuation of the HUD-Code, I think this can only be answered by the housing manufacturers. Does it help them sell more houses? Is the cost of complying with the HUD-Code, which allows them to ship new homes anywhere in the USA via preemptive building code, more than the benefit?

Likewise for the community owners. Would the potential increase in cost of losing the preemptive code be too high? The answer would have to come from the manufacturers quantifying the cost of meeting local codes. I certainly have no way of estimating the impact. And I do know I probably do not want to start dealing with local building inspectors. Just a guess.

Thanks George.

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